Three climate forces are aligning ahead of spring, increasing the likelihood of hotter and drier conditions across parts of Australia. The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) forecasts a potentially record-breaking El Niño that may intensify into a "very strong event" and persist into next year. Simultaneously, a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another climate driver linked to warmer and drier weather, is expected to develop by spring.
Triple whammy of climate drivers
Andrew Watkins, an adjunct professor at Monash University and a Climate Council researcher, told SBS News: "So, for Australia through the coming spring and summer, the double whammy of climate change and El Niño will be driving our weather. In actual fact, we might even have a triple whammy." He described the IOD as "effectively El Niño but in the Indian Ocean."
Watkins explained that the pattern "really sets in until summer, when the Asian monsoon comes in and knocks it over. But if we have climate change and El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean dipole, they are three things that all push south-east Australia into hotter and drier, and especially the spring period."
Warmest spring on record possible
While El Niño does not guarantee hotter and drier conditions, it raises the odds. BoM climatologist Zhi-Weng Chua noted that much of Australia will likely swelter soon, with a high chance the south-east and south-west experience one of the warmest springs on record. "Western parts of Western Australia, extending into southern Queensland and parts of south Australia, there is a strong indication that temperatures will be in the top 20 per cent of historical records for spring," he told SBS News.
The heat in Australia is driven by different factors than those affecting Europe and North America, where record temperatures have heightened fire danger. El Niño, measured by Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures, strongly impacts the Asia Pacific but has far less effect on Europe and North America. Central Pacific sea surface temperatures are now more than 2C above average, a level associated with a very strong El Niño, for the first time in a decade.
Bushfire outlook and concerns
Greg Mullins, former commissioner of Fire and Rescue NSW and a Climate Council member, expressed deep concern about the converging climate drivers. He warned that the combination of El Niño and a positive IOD could trigger "flash droughts" that heighten bushfire risk. "Those two together can drive rapid drought, what we call flash drought, that you know within weeks you're suddenly in bad fire territory," he said. "I know there's a lot of deep concern in all the fire agencies nationally."
However, BoM meteorologists see signs that rain could disrupt the summer bushfire threat in many areas. Chua said the drier-than-average pattern for September breaks down for much of the country, with above-average rainfall favoured or an unclear signal. Victoria and Tasmania, however, are expected to remain comparatively dry.
